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  • [추가답변]조건부 확률.

    귀연선남 2003.06.26 00:23 조회 수 : 1193

    재수생님의 풀이에서 오류를 설명드리겠습니다.
    (정답 구하는 방법은 WIntER님의 방법이 맞습니다)
    P(B)= P(B/A)+ P(B/A의 여집합) 라고 생각하고 풀으셨다고 하셨는데 [여기서 / 는 │를 말씀하시는거죠? 조건부확률의...]이는 틀린 계산입니다.
    정확히 계산하면
    P(B)=P(A)*P(B│A) + P(B)* P(B│A의여집합)
    이 맞습니다.

    즉, 각각의 조건부 확률로 A가일어났을때 B의 확률과 A가 일어나지 않았을때 B가 일어날 확률만 구해 더하면 되는것이 아니라
    A가 일어날확률*A가일어났을때 B가일어날확률 + A가일어나지않을확률*A가일어나지않았을때B가일어날확률이 되는것이죠.

    이문제는 조건부확률로 생각하지 마시고..위의 답변처럼 간단히 생각해서 푸는게 쉽습니다.^^
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